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  • Weekend Picks and Betting Tips

    This is another weekend in which the boxing calendar is absolutely loaded (get use to it, many more such weekends on the horizon). Here are some of my picks and how I am wagering this weekends action:

    Upset Picks:

    Anthony Yigit (+333) over Ivan Baranchyk (-455) - When I first saw this line, I thought it was a misprint. Then I checked around some and saw most sportsbooks had a similar line. Frankly, I handicapped this as a pick em fight with a lean toward Yigit. Yigit is a slick skilled southpaw with a deep amateur pedigree. He has the style to give Baranchyk fits. Yes, Baranchyk could overpower him. But I really like Yigit's chances. I think this line has more to do with Baranchyk being more known to audiences than Yigit. Wagering $50 for a payout of $216.50

    Hughie Fury (+110) over Kubrat Pulev (-125) - Okay not a massive upset but I really like Fury here. This will also be a them on the next fight but often times we see boxers judged too much on a single loss in their career and as such this biased thinking causes for irrational odds. Fury lost to Joseph Parker last year and it was not his best of performances. But I think he steps up his game against Pulev. Pulev is older and has been relatively inactive as well as hit by injuries. I think he shows his age in the ring and the younger Fury uses youth and skill to prevail. Caution though, this is in Bulgaria and we will probably have to sweat out a decision. Wagering $50 for a payout of $105

    Yuandale Evans (+375) over Alberto Machado (-500) - I really like what I have seen out of Evans in his last few fights. Much like Fury, he is being judged too much on one loss than the body of work, especially recently, in his career. He is skilled, quick handed and fighting with a new found aggressive style under Barry Hunter. I like the style he brings to the table to beat Machado, Machado is good and this is the longest shot on the three upset picks in my opinion but still tab Evans chances better than the odds suggest. Wagering $25 for a payout of $118.75

    Favorites:

    I am going to do a parlay featuring Heather Hardy (-175) and Daniel Jacobs (-200). I think Hardy-Vincent is an action fight and closer than the first time. But still think Hardy gets the job done much like the first fight. Plus, even if close can't see the judges going against her in New York where she has consistently won in close fights (or some that most felt she should have lost). I compared Jacobs-Derevyanchenko to Hopkins-Lipsey earlier this week and think the result is similar. Jacobs skill and experience proves too much for Derevyanchenko and Jacobs scores a spectacular 4th round knockout win. One thing to keep in mind when watching this fight. Derevyanchenko severely lacks head movement and this makes him an easy target for the power shots of Jacobs. Derevyanchenko gets discouraged early from getting hit so cleanly and eventually catches that big shot that puts him out. Wagering $150 on this parlay for a payout of $203.57.


  • #2
    Good stuff Matt, but I think Hardy loses this time. Derevyanchenko will also upset Jacobs IMO. Pulev-Fury is a pick 'em.

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    • #3
      Good luck, Matt. There's been late money on Derevyanchenko who hasn't defeated anyone of note but is far more experienced than his record suggests.

      Like your Fury pick. He doesn't have single-shot fight altering power which you like to see when betting on a fighter in a hostile environment, but yet there's a little part of me that thinks he may turn out to be best of the Fury cousins. I believe there's a 7-hour time difference between New York and Bulgaria so keep that in mind if you plan to live-stream the fight.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by Kid Blast View Post
        Good stuff Matt, but I think Hardy loses this time. Derevyanchenko will also upset Jacobs IMO. Pulev-Fury is a pick 'em.
        Thanks KB.

        A lot in the sport are picking Derevyanchenko. And I do like Derevyanchenko. But I think Jacobs is too much for him. I honestly don't think Derevyanchenko has the power to hurt Jacobs. I know he has a gaudy KO mark but many of those knockouts took place late in fights from an accumulation of punches. Not a one punch guy and though he lands on Jacobs will not have the power to deter Jacobs. And the lack of head movement for Derevyanchenko is a major issue. He is going to be a sitting duck for Jacobs' right hand. Derevyanchenko won't be able to eat too many of those either.

        I see your thinking with Hardy. But she has gotten many favorable decisions in NY. In a fight with two minute rounds in which many could be close, I see the judges in NY giving the majority to Hardy like has happened in the past.

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        • #5
          I guess I like Danny to win too but not by stoppage.

          He'll get tagged early, adjust well, and win on points.

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          • #6
            Whatever happens . .

            No way Derevyanchenko gets stopped in round 4 by Jacobs; save your money.

            Derevyanchenko is lot better fighter than he sometimes looks.

            I think he would have stopped Sulecki.



            That said, perhaps Jacobs would have stopped Tureano Johnson; but (like Sulecki with Jacobs) he sure showed up to fight against Derevyanchenko .





            Cheers,

            Storm.

             

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            • #7
              Originally posted by StormCentre View Post
              Whatever happens . .

              No way Derevyanchenko gets stopped in round 4 by Jacobs; save your money.

              Derevyanchenko is lot better fighter than he sometimes looks.

              I think he would have stopped Sulecki.



              That said, perhaps Jacobs would have stopped Tureano Johnson; but (like Sulecki with Jacobs) he sure showed up to fight against Derevyanchenko .





              Cheers,

              Storm.

              Jacobs is going to stop Derevyanchenko. Maybe not four rounds (though I will stand by that as my official pick) but my money is firmly on Jacobs in this fight.

              Comment


              • #8
                Hope you didn't lose too much bankroll on this. 😎

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by KO Digest View Post
                  Hope you didn't lose too much bankroll on this. 😎
                  Nah, the Hardy/Jacobs parlay was turned out to be a nice hedge.

                  Yigit fought the wrong fight against Baranchyk and was overpowered. I thought Evans could stand with Machado but that obviously was not the case. As for Fury, thought he'd have learned from that Parker experience and step up his game. He didn't and is probably destined to be a heavyweight on the fringe of being a contender but nothing more.

                  Jacobs did not knock out Derevyanchenko as I thought but still was the clear winner. His power did get to Derevyanchenko and cause for Derevyanchenko to not open up as much. But Derevyanchenko took the power better than I thought especially after he was floored in the first round. It was a good fight and I enjoyed it though had to sweat out the split decision.

                  In the end, down $71.43 for the week so not all was lost.

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                  • #10
                    WTF was with that one blind judge? SD? BS!

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by KO Digest View Post
                      WTF was with that one blind judge? SD? BS!
                      That was Julie Lederman. She does tend to favor aggressors (I had a post on her on this forum before the Porter-Garcia fight in September) and Derevyanchenko was aggressive throughout. I certainly did not agree with that card nor did Harold Lederman who had it exactly the way I saw it at 116-111 for Jacobs.

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                      • #12
                        Jacobs was the clear and obvious winner.

                        How you score a KD at home, kick butt, AND STILL LOSE?

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by KO Digest View Post
                          Jacobs was the clear and obvious winner.

                          How you score a KD at home, kick butt, AND STILL LOSE?
                          One thing I will say in defense of Julie Lederman's card was that some in the media did have Derevyanchenko winning. Most notably Chris Mannix who also scored the fight 114-113 for Derevyanchenko. Obviously, I disagree but some respected people in the sport did share her scoring.
                          Last edited by oubobcat; 10-28-2018, 09:25 AM.

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                          • #14
                            In Boston we'd say, "Agr, another *****!"

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              What a masterpiece of skill, perserverance and passion on display last night.
                              I knew "Derry" was going to sift his way through Jacobs potently effective offensive and defensive library.
                              Jacobs' skillset is vastly underated, I could go on for chapter and verse for days just describing his pugilistic virtues.

                              However "Derry" had me concerned. A neary 400 amateur fight veteran who didn't lose his prowess in the process like so many do but rather thrived in an environment that quickly separates the alpha's from the betas.

                              And not to mention he looks like Jake LaMotta.

                              In his fight against Tureano johnson, Derry ended the 12th round as vigorously (in fact more vigorously) than he started. When are the announcers going to realize that deep breathing only means a big engine needs a bigger fuel supply ...GGG, and other well conditioned athletes gulp air like guppies too and pick up right where they left off when the bell rings.

                              With Roy Jones constantly reiterating "I don't like this Jim, he's breathing hard" I was tempted to cut the volume.
                              ... and the constant "I don't know why he doesn't use the left hook Jim" was equally unnerving. Could it be because the left hook was Roy's best punch when he was in his prime. ...just sayin.

                              I never made a prediction ...wasn't as brave to share my own opinions for fear of being wrong....the fight was so close from my perspective.

                              If it wasn't Danny's ability to twist and writhe around in the pocket and unleash sharp punches from insanely tight angles in addition to the early knockdown... the fight could have easily been a draw or a loss.

                              I had to watch the fight several times to absorb what I was seeing .
                              There was a lot going on and the angles shifted so often with Derry pivoting constantly and Jacobs using his fluid brand of elusiveness its easy to see how Julie fouled up her card but when are the commissions going to seek out the most suitable applicants instead of some commissioners veterinarian, a second cousin or the pool cleaner?

                              Its very rare and a high privilege to get to enjoy such a vast collection of boxing skillsets in a small room. The fight totally lived up to my every expectation.

                              I like guys who carry Charlo's crass, and brash persona (when it feels genuine) but I like it even more when two fighters both imbody so much skill that they can forgo the pushing, shoving and shouting... That's when you truly know you're in for a treat.
                              Last edited by brownsugar1; 10-28-2018, 06:43 PM.

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