Weekend Picks and Betting Tips

oubobcat

Well-known member
First, I will summarize last week's results:

Anthony Yigit (+333) - $50 wagered and lost - Liked the value on Yigit but obviously did not payoff
Yuandale Evans (+375) - $25 wagered and lost - Same as Yigit, worth the shot on the underdog.
Hughie Fury (+110) - $50 wagered and lost - miscalculated on Fury and made a mistake thinking he would be improved off of Parker loss. Fury did look much better against Sam Sexton in fight following Parker defeat but that did not translate in the ring against Pulev.

Heather Hardy (-175) and Daniel Jacobs (-200) parlay - $150 wagered for a winning payout of $203.57. I really liked Hardy and Jacobs to win and this one paid off. Though Jacobs did not score the knockout I thought he would and it was a closer than I thought it would be, he still prevailed in the end and the ticket cashed.

Final results - Wagered $275 and won $203.57 for a loss of $71.43.

Now to this week:

Ryan Martin (+900) over Josh Taylor (-1500) - For the record, I am picking Josh Taylor to win this fight. But am wagering on Ryan Martin. Why? Because I can't pass up the value on Martin. I play this strategy long term and when I see value even if I think that fighter loses I still play the fighter who holds the value. I think this should be more of a +400 to +500 line on Martin. He is a good fighter with a solid amateur background. He is athletic and has very good hand speed for the division. Not an easy guy for anyone at 140 to face. Too good a fighter to be at +900 in the sports books at the moment. This is all about value. $50 on Martin for a payout of $500

Ryan Burnett-Nonito Donaire Over 10 1/2 rounds (-245) - I have a general rule of thumb when looking at over/unders. When there are two very good fighters in the ring with track records in this sport, take the over. It will pay out long term. Yes getting to 118 may drain Donaire and leave him vulnerable to a ko. And yes Donaire may be able to find that old power from years ago in returning to 118 and do some damage to Burnett. But these are good professional fighters and I see the over hitting. $100 on the over for a payout of $140.82.

Miguel Berchelt-Miguel Roman Over 9 1/2 rounds (+120) - Yes they have both been knocked out before. But again, two good fighters with a track record I take the over. There is risk. Roman may be a bit shopworn and more susceptible to a knock out. And Berchelt was caught early in his one knock out loss. Roman is generally durable though. And Berchelt got caught cold in a similar manner to what happened to Badou Jack in his first round knockout loss. It happens but doesn't necessarily mean the fighter caught has a bad chin (I said necessarily too before anyone jumps on me for that statement as I am fully aware there are instances this has not been the case). I like the value on the over here. $50 for a payout of $110.

For the record, as I stated above my general rule of thumb on over/under scenarios is to take the over when two good fighters with solid track records face one another. This is a general rule for myself and will not always 100% of the time be the case. There will certainly some times when I make exception to this rule of thought and play the under in such scenarios.
 
I liked Hughie Lewis as well. If it wasn’t for the cut he might have well outboxed Pulev. He will be back challenging for a title in a couple years .
what wager website do you use OU?
 
The concept of "value in betting" doesn't apply in boxing as well as in other sports, but I too think the line favoring Josh Taylor is way too high. Martin has a good team (Tom Loeffler and Abel Sanchez) and better hand speed.
 
I liked Hughie Lewis as well. If it wasn’t for the cut he might have well outboxed Pulev. He will be back challenging for a title in a couple years .
what wager website do you use OU?

I used to use Bovada but that is no longer an option. So now use BetOnline. However, I have a running bankroll with my brother who travels a lot and often finds himself in Vegas. When he is out there, I will go thru him (or shop around for the better lines).
 
The concept of "value in betting" doesn't apply in boxing as well as in other sports, but I too think the line favoring Josh Taylor is way too high. Martin has a good team (Tom Loeffler and Abel Sanchez) and better hand speed.



Given the frequency at which the punter (rarely) wins and pulls ahead, let alone earns a profit and stays ahead . . .

I would dare to say the concept of “value betting” is akin to an oxymoron.



And, one (oxymoron) that comes to mind is; “military intelligence”.

It’s highly debatable whether there is any such thing.



“Military intelligence” and/or “value betting”.




Cheers,

Storm.

:) :)
 
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